Posted by: bigtalksingapore | August 28, 2011

Singapore 2011 Presidential Election

And the winner is Tony Tan (winning by a 0.34 per cent margin, or 7,269 votes.).

Dr Tony Tan got 744,397 votes (35.19%)

Dr Tan Cheng Bock got 737,128 votes (34.85%)

Mr Tan Jee Say got 529,732 votes (25.04%)

Mr Tan Kin Lian got 103,931 votes (4.91%). This means he will lose his election deposit of S$48,000.

Total of 2,115,188 valid votes (Out of total of 2,274,773 voters).

Meaning a total of about 122,759 invalid (37,826) or uncast (84,933) votes .

.

Many people said that this is a symbolic election that show how Singaporean react to the recent “Singaporean First” policy.

Most of them said that the narrow win by Tony Tan is a slap on the face of the ruling party (PA-P or Puppy). I want to look at this from another angle.

Below is my analysis…

  • First, I’ll make an assumption based on the last general election in May 2011. That puppy support of 60% election votes and opposition 40% is reflected in this Presidential Election .

  • Tony Tan and Tan Cheng Bock are a representation of puppy support. Tan Kin Lian is a non-party representation and Tan Jee Say is a representation of opposition support.
  • Puppy supporters (60%) was divided between Tony Tan and Tan Cheng Bock. Tony Tan get 35% of puppy supporters while Tan Cheng Bock get 25% of puppu support. To make up for Tan Cheng Bock 35%, about 10% of the voters from previous opposition supporters swing over. These 10% are the borderline voters between puppy and opposition.
  • The previous 40% opposition voters decline to 30% after 10% swing to Tan Cheng Bock. The 30% get split between Tan Jee Say (25%) and Tan Kin Lian (5%).
  • Based on this analysis, puppy get a total of 70% (35+35) support from voters. Meaning 10% of previous opposition supporters like what puppy did after election and change their ground.

Conclusion, Puppy has improved their voters support since the last general election, 10% (From 60% to 70%) of voters increased shows their support for recent “Singaporean First” policy. Opposition parties will need to work harder if they want to improve their standing in the next general election.

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